119th Congress (2025-2026)

HR 8076

Predict act

Predict Act

Introduced

Jurisdiction

US Congress

Session

119th Congress (2025-2026)

Official source

Chamber

House

Session

119th Congress (2025-2026)

Jurisdiction

US Congress

Bill overview

The Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act) prohibits certain individuals from engaging in trading activities based on predictions about political events. Specifically, it restricts covered individuals – including members of Congress, their families, and high-ranking executive branch officials – from participating in prediction markets. Violations can result in financial penalties and disgorgement of profits.

Key provisions

Prohibits covered individuals from trading on prediction markets.
Defines ‘covered individual’ to include members of Congress, their families, executive branch officials, and judicial officers.
Establishes penalties for violations, including fees and disgorgement of profits.
Restricts the sources from which penalties can be paid.
Requires the Office of Government Ethics to issue interpretive guidance on key terms.
Mandates public disclosure of fines and assessment reasons.
Adds a new subchapter to Chapter 131 of Title 5, U.S. Code, addressing prediction market trading restrictions.

Who is affected

Members of Congress
Executive Branch Officials (including political appointees and high-ranking employees)
Judicial Officers and Employees
Dependents of Members of Congress
Spouses of Members of Congress

Notable changes

Creates a specific prohibition against trading on prediction markets based on political events.

Positions across the country

No public positions recorded for this legislation.

Arguments in favor

Reasons to support this legislation.

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Arguments opposed

Reasons to oppose this legislation.

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Legislative history

2026-03-25House

Referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and in addition to the Committees on House Administration, and the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.

2026-03-25House

2026-03-25

Introduced in House

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Mar 25, 2026XMLView source

119th CONGRESS — 2d Session

H. R. 8076

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

A BILL

To amend chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, to prohibit covered individuals from trading on prediction markets, and for other purposes.

1.Short title

This Act may be cited as the

Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act

or the

PREDICT Act

2.Restrictions on trading on prediction markets

(a)RestrictionsChapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end a new subchapter:

IVRestrictions on trading on prediction markets

13151.Definitions

In this subchapter:

(1)Covered individualThe term covered individual means any of the following:

(A)

A Member of Congress as defined in section 13101 of this title.

(B)A dependent child as defined in such section 13101 or a spouse of a Member of Congress.

(C)

An individual or entity with fiduciary duties and the authority to enter into or offer to enter into an agreement, contract, or transaction with respect to prediction markets for any individual described in subparagraphs (A) or (B).

(D)An officer or employee of the Congress as defined in such section 13101.

(E)

The President.

(F)

The Vice President.

(G)A political appointee.

(H)Each officer or employee in the executive branch, including a special Government employee, as defined in section 202 of title 18, and any officer or employee of an independent agency, who occupies a position classified above GS–15 of the General Schedule or, in the case of positions not under the General Schedule, for which the rate of basic pay is equal to or greater than 120 percent of the minimum rate of basic pay payable for GS–15 of the General Schedule; each member of a uniformed service whose pay grade is at or in excess of O–7 under section 201 of title 37; and each officer or employee in any other position determined by the Director of the Office of Government Ethics to be of equal classification.

(I)A judicial officer as defined in section 13101 of this title.

(J)A judicial employee as defined in section 13101 of this title.

(2)Independent agencyThe term independent agency has the meaning given the term independent establishment as defined in section 104 of this title.

(3)Political appointeeThe term political appointee means an individual—

(A)

occupying a position described under sections 5312 through 5316 of this title (relating to the Executive Schedule);

(B)

serving under a noncareer appointment in the Senior Executive Service, as defined under paragraph (7) of section 3132(a) of this title; or

(C)

occupying a position in the executive branch of the Government of a confidential or policy-determining character under schedule C of subpart C of part 213 of title 5, Code of Federal Regulations.

(4)Supervising ethics office

The term supervising ethics office—

(A)

has the meaning given the term in section 13101 of this title; and

(B)

in the case of an independent agency, means the Office of Government Ethics.

13152.Trading on prediction markets

(a)Conduct during Federal serviceNo covered individual may enter into, or offer to enter into an agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific political event.

(b)Interpretative guidance

The supervising ethics office shall issue interpretive guidance on any relevant term not defined in this subchapter.

13153.Penalties

(a)In general

(1)Penalties

Any covered individual who violates the restrictions in section 13152 of this title shall, at the direction of the supervising ethics office—

(A)pay a fee equal to ten percent of the value of the agreement, contract, or transaction in violation; and

(B)disgorge the profits of any agreement, contract, or transaction that violates the provisions of such section 13152.

(2)Payment of penalty to TreasuryA penalty imposed under paragraph (1)(B) shall be payable into the Treasury.

(b)Payment restrictionsA covered individual may not pay any of the penalties under this section from the following sources:

(1)

The Members’ Representational Allowance.

(2)The Senators’ Official Personnel and Office Expense Account.

(3)Any contribution (as defined in section 301(8) of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (52 U.S.C. 30101(8))) accepted as a candidate, and any other donation received as support for activities of the individual as a holder of Federal office.

(4)

Any other source of funds, other than a salary, available to such individual through employment or service in the Federal Government.

(c)Publication

Each supervising ethics office shall publish on a publicly available website a description of—

(1)

each fine assessed by the supervising ethics office pursuant to this section;

(2)

the reason why each such fine was assessed; and

(3)

the result of each assessment.

(b)Table of contentsThe table of contents for chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end the following:

Subchapter IV. Restrictions on trading on prediction markets

13151. Definitions.

13152. Trading on prediction markets.

13153. Penalties.

HR 8076

Bill overview

Key provisions

Who is affected

Notable changes

Sponsors

Primary sponsor

Cosponsors

Positions across the country

Arguments in favor

Arguments opposed

Bill text

Fiscal impact

Positions across the country